Updated to reflect the Scrape of Haikal and jockey Change
Considering that the Kentucky Derby at 2013 embraced a points system to meet the requirements for the 20-horse area, chalk has mastered that the winner’s circle. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were all post-time favorites, returning involving $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 billion bet — a far cry from enormous payouts of yore, which included I’ll Have Another ($32.60 in 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine That Bird ($103.20 at 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 in 2005).
[Everything you need to know about the 2019 Kentucky Derby]
On the other hand, exotic bets such as the trifecta (choosing the first three finishers in order) and superfecta (choosing the first four finishers so ) continue to provide betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the 1 triple paid $8,297.20 along with a different monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Updated to reflect the scratch of Haikal and jockey change on Cutting Humor
Considering that the Kentucky Derby at 2013 adopted a points system to meet the requirements for the 20-horse field, chalk has mastered the winner’s team. Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and Orb were all post-time favorites, returning involving $6.60 and $12.80 on a $2 billion bet — a far cry from huge payouts of yore, which included I’ll Have Another ($32.60 in 2012), Animal Kingdom ($43.80 in 2011), Mine That Bird ($103.20 in 2009) and Giacomo ($102.60 in 2005).
[Everything you Want to know about the 2019 Kentucky Derby]
On the other hand, exotic bets like the trifecta (picking the first 3 finishers in order) and superfecta (choosing the first four finishers so ) continue to provide betting bonanzas. Last year’s $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20. In 2017 the 1 triple paid $8,297.20 in addition to another monster superfecta ($75,974.50).Isolating the top three or four finishers in a 20-horse field famous for its chaos isn’t easy, but in addition to getting a fantastic pedigree and a good foundation, a horse needs tactical speed to have the ability to keep up with the speed.
Brisnet classified only 1 horse in the field, Omaha Beach, as a need-to-lead type, or’E’ horse, but he was scratched on Wednesday, leaving 15 horses place to be stalk the first pace (‘EP’ horses) or close to it (‘P’ horses) between the initial (half-mile) and moment (three-quarters of a mile) calls. Four others are believed sustainers or closers (‘S’) and will make their movement from further back.
[2019 Kentucky Derby horses, post positions, odds, evaluation and Begin time]
NEED-TO-LEAD (‘E’) EARLY PRESSER (‘EP’) PRESSER (‘P’) SUSTAINER OR CLOSER (‘S’)
None Maximum Security Improbable Win Win Win
Spinoff Cutting Humor Code of Honor
Roadster By My Standards Country House
Tax Tacitus Master Fencer
War of Will
Long Range Toddy
Plus Que Parfait
But, some horses will be forced by Tuesday’s post position draw out of the comfort zone. As an instance, Mark Casse, trainer of War Will (post position No. 2) said after the draw which his horse will”probably be on the lead and play catch me if you can.” If he doesn’t visit the front, start looking for Tax, in post No. 3, to”come out jogging and sit on the rail,” according to Tax’s coach, Danny Gargan. Maximum Security (No. 7) will also likely be up front but, with a lack of true speedsters from the race, the pace shouldn’t be rapid enough to hamper Maximum Security’s ability to last 11/4 miles.
Being among the first flight of horses is key. Over the past six years every Kentucky Derby winner but one, Orb in 2013, was categorized as having a stalking (‘EP’) running style. Half of the horses (12 out of 24) that hit the plank over that span had a’EP’ working style as well with others listed as pressers (‘P’), horses sitting just off the leaders at the first call.
Maximum Security qualifies on merit plus running fashion. I would also include Game Winner, Vekoma, Tax, Spinoff and Improbable as good worth plays to hit the board on Saturday within a fast track.
[Three Kentucky Derby long shots worth a bet to win]
Improbable is recorded by Brisnet as a presser but he’s never been over two 1/2 lengths behind the leader at the first or second telephone. Nyquist was four lengths behind the leader at the first telephone in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and American Pharoah was just two lengths off the lead at the first telephone in 2015. Both won and Improbable resembles a winner . At the very least, he is well worth using as a key horse into your trifectas and superfectas.
Spinoff inherited almost 3 times as much speed as stamina out of his lineage (2.78 Dosage Index) and his ancient presser running style should have him in prime position to make a splash.
Vekoma has a similar speed profile (2.56 Dosage Index) and his success in the Blue Grass — that contained a career high Brisnet pace figure (how quickly he ran from the beginning to the next call) of 114 — is reason for optimism this Saturday.
Game Winner failed as the favored in his past two races but he’s hit the board in all six of his starts, never finishing worse than second. However, Baffert has trained two Triple Crown winners in the previous 3 years so that you will not ever be able to count among his horses outside.
Tax might have to expend energy to acquire a comfortable spot on the rail but he has three triple-digit Brisnet rate figures in a row using a new career pace figure (105) in his last homework, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, making him an attractive overlay for its superfecta at 20-1 odds.
Win Win Win, By My Standards and Cutting Humor also deserve consideration in superfecta wagers.
Win Win Win closed into a quick pace throughout his second-place finish in the Blue Grass at April and his pedigree sets up well for a continuing run in the traditional distance.
By My Standards establish a career-high Brisnet rate figure in his Louisiana Derby triumph (102) along with his coach has a positive expectation for graded stakes races in 2019, meaning a $2 blind bet on Bret Calhoun’s horses at these events would net you a 74-cent gain this season. Same for jockey Gabriel Saez (also -$1.18 net profit on route races each $2 wagered in 2019), who has ridden this horse because his first career start at Churchill Downs in November of the last year.
Mike Smith, Hall of Fame jockey and two-time winner of the Kentucky Derby, will replace Corey Lanerie on Cutting Humor. The dark brown colt should in touch with the leaders early, similar to his victory in the Sunland Derby, allowing him to utilize his late kick to grab a piece of the board.
Bearing that in mind, this is how I would assemble my trifecta and superfecta tickets.
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